2021 Report details for project: Brighton Mainline Upgrade Programme

Project name Brighton Mainline Upgrade Programme - there is only one report for this project
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Organisation DFT (D9) - see all reports for this organisation
Report year 2021 (data is from March 2021)
Category Infrastructure - see all reports for this category
Description: The BMU Programme comprises a series of infrastructure enhancements, the most significant of which is the Croydon Area Remodelling Scheme (CARS), which aims to resolve one of the most restrictive bottlenecks on the UK rail network. Currently, all trains travelling up the Brighton Main Line to either London Victoria or London Bridge and the Thameslink route through the city must pass through East Croydon station and the flat, partially grade separated junction at the Selhurst triangle north of East Croydon. This constraint imposes inefficient train pathing and operations. Trains waiting in stations are held at red signals across the area, waiting to pass through the junction, leading to high levels of delays and impacting services. CARS is the largest element of the programme and delivers the bulk of overall benefits. However, other schemes including Horsham crossover, Reigate 12-car and Gatwick area track layout also provide benefits within the wider Programme.
DCA (RAG) Amber/Red
DCA text: The Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating is Amber/red.This is primarily due to the following factors: The Brighton Mainline Upgrade Programme is at early stages of development. The Outline Business Case (OBC) is yet to be finalised and progressed. Further timetable development and performance analysis is required before the scheme can make further significant progress, and a plan to deliver this has been jointly developed between Network Rail (NR), the Department and Govia Thameslink Railway. Future demand due to Covid-19 is uncertain at this stage and the scheme requires time to understand this further before finalising and submitting an OBC. On this basis the project DCA assessment is currently evaluated at amber/red. The Department and NR have developed a revised approach for the scheme in light of recent work and the emerging demand picture. This revised approach is making progress in moving the Programme forward.
Start date 2015-06-01
End date 2040-05-01
Schedule text The project end-date is 01 May 2040. This is primarily due to the following factors: As set out above, a range of factors are creating uncertainty and we are also investigating more efficient and accelerated opportunities for delivery. In addition, confirmed funding for railway enhancements is only available until March 2024 and is subject to investment decisions and Ministerial prioritisation. Therefore, the above programme end date is highly indicative.
Baseline £32.00m
Forecast £24.50m
Variance -23.00%
Variance text: The budget variance exceeds 5%. Programme spend was reduced following the 2020 Spending Review and ongoing passenger demand uncertainty. In addition, an IPA Review identified various opportunities to improve the efficiency, value for money and passenger benefits of the scheme. In response a revised programme of works was developed that responded to the IPA's recommendations and sought to provide us with a better understanding of passenger demand uncertainty. Significant technical engineering development that was planned for 2020/21 was therefore deferred.
Whole Life Cost £3,995.34m
WLCost text: The projects Baseline Whole Life Cost is £3995.34m. This is primarily due to the following factors: The anticipated final cost is indicative and based on an Interim Technical Report. We are pursuing opportunities to reduce the schedule via Project SPEED (led by Network Rail), which identifies a variety of programme/cost savings which can be delivered via greater use of extended possessions and blockades. Options are still being explored and there is still substantial work to complete before any solutions are considered for implementation.
Sourcefile IPA_2021.csv

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Acknowledgement: GMPP data has been re-used under the Open Government Licence.