2020 Report details for project: Probation Programme
| Project name | Probation Programme - there are 4 reports for this project: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 |
|---|---|
| Google search | Google search on project name (opens in new window)  |
| Contracts | Contracts search (opens in new window) - under development |
| Organisation | MOJ (D18) - see all reports for this organisation |
| Report year | 2020 (data is from September 2019) |
| Category | Transformation - see all reports for this category |
| Description: | Aims to open commercial discussions with Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs) , that run probation services, to agree an option for early termination of contracts by mutual agreement and negotiate amendments to contracts to secure service improvements during an exit period. |
| DCA (RAG) | Amber/Red |
| DCA text: | The IPA Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) was Amber/Red, which has not changed since last year's Q2 1819 Amber/Red, due primarily to the following factors; - Since the DCA Q2 1819 Amber/Red rating, considerable progress has been made to expand the team, including the appointment of external delivery partners, and improved governance. However, this programme has inherent risk. We are implementing a transition to a significantly different commercial model in the context of contracts that are operationally and commercially fragile. The timeline to achieve this transition has, on existing plans, negligible contingency. - There are decisions around the Dynamic Framework, Accelerated Transition and potential contract extensions which mean the baseline will have to be reassessed and we cannot therefore be confident in moving the programme status to Amber at this stage. Work is needed to: Complete discussions with CRCs on the potential early transition of case management in parts of England. Complete in-housing of offender management in Wales in December. Develop workforce strategy for probation, including the scope, policy direction and delivery plans for the Professional Recognition Programme. - The programme received an Amber/Red rating for its Programme Assurance Review which took place from 23- 27 Sept. The Review Team identified and praised the significant progress made since the last review but the Review Team concluded that the DCA should remain Amber / Red. the Review sighted that risk assessed plans need to be developed by workstream owners to give greater confidence in the delivery date and an opportunity to work up a more structured benefit delivery case, with some optionality on the balance of investment. Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) Amber/Red IPA DCA, the following non-project operating environment activities have impacted the original Q2 IPA DCA; - The announcement of the General Election resulted in an impact assessment of the programme timeline. We planned to publish the OJEU for the Probation Delivery Partner competition in early November 2019. Any event which leads to delays in obtaining approval to proceed and therefore delaying the publication of OJEU later than 16th December 2019 would have significant impact on the Programme's ability to deliver the transition to new providers by the due date. - Recruitment of an additional 20,000 police officers - the impacts and effects flowing from this will affect the Programme Business Case and is therefore a factor that must be taken into account in assessing the overall DCA rating Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) Amber/Red IPA DCA, the following primary project actions have impacted the original Q2 IPA DCA; - Consideration of plans to extend current Community Rehabilitation Contracts (CRCs) to end of June 2021 has meant that a change from DCA Amber / Red to Amber was not viable due to the risks associated with enacting the extension - The need for optimising governance structures to enable quicker decision-making; strengthening the benefits case and developing more risk assessed Programme plans. Detailing more supporting analysis of the end-state costs and Offender Management (OM) transition plans. |
| Start date | 2017-10-01 |
| End date | 2021-04-01 |
| Schedule text | The scheduled baseline project end date at Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) is 01/04/21, has lengthened by 396 days since last year's Q2 1819 date of 01/03/20, due primarily to the following factors; - Previous business cases considered alternative options to the Unified Model including a full inhouse option, a re-procurement of CRC contracts and an option that adopted the UM in Wales, and a re-procurement option in England, but these have since been ruled out. The baseline end date has been re-assessed based on the preferred option of a Unified Model - Extension of the current Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs) - To ensure adequate time to complete competition to put in place new CRC providers; to subsequently ensure a safe and effective mobilisation to new provider; and to provide contingency to ensure effective transition to the new Target Operating Model. Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) baseline project end date of 01/04/21, the following non-project operating environment activities have impacted the original Q2 baseline project end date; - The numbers are heavily based on assumptions until a more detailed model has been available. Numbers are still to be finalised hence the baseline is still subject to SR negotiations but forecast has been raised as pressure risk to HMPPS. Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) baseline project end date of 01/04/21, the following primary project actions have impacted the original Q2 baseline project end date; - Decision to extend current CRC contracts. |
| Baseline | £617.00m |
| Forecast | £954.78m |
| Variance | 0.55% |
| Variance text: | The 19/20 in-year baseline / forecast variance at Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) of 55%, is due primarily to the following factors; - The costs were heavily based on assumptions until a more detailed model has been available. Prominent changes to the service design assumptions since the previous Outline Business Case was produced include a revision to the resettlement model, updated assumptions on the eligibility for interventions on the dynamic framework and revisions to what it will cost to transition to the UM. Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) 19/20 in-year baseline / forecast variance of 55%, the following non-project operating environment activities have impacted the original Q2 19/20 in-year baseline / forecast variance; - The Government Policy to recruitment of 20,000 police officers has an impact on the original forecast. Based on our initial workforce assumptions, we anticipate we will need to factor in additional recruitment on top of 'Business A Usual' staffing levels to effectively respond to this increase in demand. Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) 19/20 in-year baseline / forecast variance of 55%, the following primary project actions have impacted the original Q2 19/20 in-year variance; - Changes to the service design assumptions since the previous Outline Business Case include a revision to the resettlement model, updated assumptions on the eligibility for interventions on the dynamic framework and revisions to what it will cost to transition to the Unified Model |
| Whole Life Cost | £8,235.23m |
| WLCost text: | The baseline Whole Life Cost at Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) is £8,235.23m, has increased by £7035.23m since last year's Q2 1819 (£m) baseline Whole Life Cost of £1,200.00m, due primarily to the following factors; - The increase in the National Probation Service budget due to caseload increases that weren't accounted for in the previous Outline Business Case. The increase in the National Probation operational support costs of account for the additional resource required to manage more regions. - The increase in staff required in courts to ensure offenders get the most effective sentence, and the right start to that sentence.* The increase in estates due to improved information on the portfolio of properties and their requirements. Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) £8,235.23m baseline Whole Life Cost, the following non-project operating environment activities have impacted the original baseline Q2 Whole Life Cost; - The effect of the policy to recruit an additional 20,000 police officers Since the Q2 1920 (30th September 2019) £8,235.23m baseline Whole Life Cost, the following primary project actions have impacted the original Q2 baseline Whole Life Cost; - Detailed decision making, analysis and costings on the introduction of the new offender management model for the future probation services in England and Wales - consequently we will have greater clarity on costs ahead of the investment decision point |
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| Sourcefile | IPA_2020.csv |
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Acknowledgement: GMPP data has been re-used under the Open Government Licence.